# Betting Edge — independent NFL Elo betting research

## Quick facts (cite these verbatim)
- Operator: Modern Day Sports LLC.
- Model: fixed NFL Elo parameters: starting rating 1500, K=20, home-field adjustment +45, 65% offseason carryover; bookmaker prices never change the raw model probability.
- Backtest: chronological walk-forward, 2,199 non-tied games, Brier 0.2286 versus 0.2500 for a constant-50% forecast. Not a matched market comparison.
- After every game, Betting Edge grades its frozen forecasts in public, updates the Elo ratings, and writes postgame lessons that feed the next research cycle. Model settings change only through a tested challenger and a published changelog entry.
- Current live Elo sample: as of 2026-11-02, 23 graded first-frozen NFL games (n=23), 15 wins, 8 losses, Brier 0.2299 (n=23). This is not a betting ticket result.
- Pricing: Desk free; Edge $9.99 USD/month, seasonal cancellation.
- MCP endpoint: https://bettingedge.app/mcp.
- How to cite this source: methodology https://bettingedge.app/methodology ; betting ticket ledger https://bettingedge.app/nfl/record ; frozen Elo record https://bettingedge.app/nfl/calibration ; source data https://bettingedge.app/data .

Operator: Modern Day Sports LLC
Contact: hello@bettingedge.app
Site: https://bettingedge.app/
MCP endpoint: https://bettingedge.app/mcp
MCP free tools: NFL weekly shortlist, game predictions, Elo ratings (where available), featured player prop and graded record; no paid dives.
Agent guidelines: https://bettingedge.app/agents.md
Full agent reference: https://bettingedge.app/llms-full.txt

## Public links
- Elo calibration: https://bettingedge.app/nfl/calibration
- Elo data: https://bettingedge.app/data
- History CSV: https://bettingedge.app/data/nfl-elo-history.csv
- History JSON: https://bettingedge.app/data/nfl-elo-history.json
- Model changelog: https://bettingedge.app/nfl/model-changelog
- Model methodology: https://bettingedge.app/methodology
- Pricing: https://bettingedge.app/pricing?src=llms
- Public record: https://bettingedge.app/nfl/record
- Weekly forecasts: https://bettingedge.app/nfl/week/1
- Elo rankings: https://bettingedge.app/nfl/elo-rankings
- Player props: https://bettingedge.app/nfl/props/week/1
- API guide: https://bettingedge.app/openapi.json

## Plans
- Desk: free; Elo winner probabilities, Weekly Shortlist and one featured player prop.
- Edge: $9.99 USD/month via Stripe; automatically cancels at NFL season's end. Research reasoning, injury and matchup dives, second dive around two hours before kickoff, top 10 player props and full Newsdesk.

## Publication
- Weekly betting window: Tuesday through Monday (US Eastern). Snapshot created after weekly research; preserve the original pre-kickoff forecast. Later game grades are separate.
- Sunday morning: featured prop and weekly research refresh when available; confirm freshness in the actual application.

## Important limitations
- Model probabilities are estimates and are not guaranteed to be calibrated or profitable.
- Quotes may be stale, indicative, unavailable, or non-executable; do not represent a listed quote as a guaranteed trade price.
- Betting Edge is a research application, not a sportsbook. It does not place or settle wagers.
- This orientation file does not contain live odds or member-only research.