Elo forecast record and calibration
Original first-frozen game forecasts only. This record is not the betting ticket ledger. Updated on each read from published forecasts and verified final scores.
Frozen forecasts: 28 (n=28)
Graded: 23 (n=23)
Record: 15 wins / 8 losses (n=23)
Pending: 5 (n=28) · Ties excluded: 0 (n=28)
Frozen Elo
Brier: 0.2299 (n=23)
Log loss: 0.6513 (n=23)
Constant-50% benchmark
Brier: 0.2500 (n=23)
Log loss: 0.6931 (n=23)
Verified freeze-time venue prices
Venue-specific comparison · Brier: Not available (n=0)
No graded games have a verified Kalshi or Polymarket price archived at forecast freeze; no venue Brier can be calculated.
As of 2026-11-01T22:59:31.573Z. Source: immutable frozen_forecasts, append-only freeze quote evidence and verified final scores. Brier and log loss are prediction-error metrics, not proof of betting profit. Samples can be small.
Read calibration JSON