Model changelog
Registered challenger specifications are append-only. No automatic parameter tuning or promotion. No unrecorded experiment is represented as completed.
elo-weekly-pregame-v1
2026-10-20 · still running
Current published pre-kickoff Elo baseline. No parameter promotion has occurred.
Parameters tested: {"initialRating":1500,"ratingScale":400,"kFactor":20,"homeAdvantage":45,"offseasonCarryover":0.65}
Matched games: no number yet · Matched weeks: no number yet
Gate: Live baseline, not a challenger or a challenger promotion
elo-weekly-walkforward-v1
2026-10-18 · still running
Historical research replay; 2,199 non-tied games evaluated in the documented 2018–2026 holdout. Not a market-matched experiment and not promoted to live.
Parameters tested: {"initialRating":1500,"ratingScale":400,"kFactor":20,"homeAdvantage":45,"offseasonCarryover":0.65}
Matched games: no number yet · Matched weeks: no number yet
Gate: Historical walk-forward research; no prospective matched-market gate